Mr. Main Street
The economy away from Wall Street, 0–100. Pick a gauge to see what it means.
Data as of
Overall: 43, weak
- Main Street reads weak at 43 out of 100, down 5 points in three months.
- Consumer Credit is the strongest category (74); Savings the weakest (15).
- Prices are outpacing paychecks: average hourly pay rose 3.0% in a year, against 3.7% inflation.
- A mortgage on the median new home takes 31% of median household income, less affordable than 86% of quarters since 1990.
- None of the 5 recession warning signs is on. In past months like this, a recession began within a year 7% of the time (all months: 10%).
Recession odds
How often a recession began within 6, 12 and 18 months, in past months with as many warning signs on as now. All months: 5%, 10%, 15%.
- Sahm rule0.00 ptsSince 1959: on 11 times, 9 followed by a recession within a year; missed none.
- Inverted yield curve+0.96 ptsSince 1982: on 5 times, 4 followed by a recession within 2 years; missed none.
- Rising jobless claims0% vs lowSince 1968: on 13 times, 9 followed by a recession within a year; missed none.
- Falling real spending+2.0% a yearSince 1993: on 6 times, 3 followed by a recession within a year; missed none.
- Shrinking payrolls+51k a monthSince 1939: on 20 times, 14 followed by a recession within a year; missed 1.
Jobs: 59, mixed
Whether work is easy to find and keep.
- Unemployment rate4.2%80
- New jobless claims197k a week100
- Job growth+51k a month22
- Workers quitting1.9% a month34
Inflation: 33, weak
How close price growth is to the Fed’s 2% target. ▼ 7 in 3 months.
- Headline inflation (CPI)3.7% a year22
- Core inflation (ex food and energy)2.6% a year44
Interest Rates: 31, weak
What borrowing costs, from the Fed to a mortgage. ▼ 10 in 3 months.
- Fed funds rate3.75%41
- 10-year Treasury yield5.21%30
- 30-year mortgage rate7.35%23
Housing Market: 25, weak
Whether homes are affordable and being built. ▼ 15 in 3 months.
- Mortgage payment vs income31% of income14
- Housing starts1.22m a year35
Small Business: 69, mixed
New businesses, and whether banks will lend to small ones. ▼ 1 in 3 months.
- New business applications+12.7% a year90
- Banks tightening small-firm loans+2% net47
Wages: 20, weak
Whether pay is keeping up with prices. ▼ 7 in 3 months.
- Pay after inflation−0.7 pts a year20
Spending: 64, mixed
Whether people are buying more, after inflation. ▲ 2 in 3 months.
- Retail sales after inflation+2.0% a year43
- Weekly activity+3.0% pace85
Consumer Credit: 74, strong
How stretched borrowers are. ▲ 1 in 3 months.
- Credit card delinquencies2.85% of balances69
- Debt payments11.1% of income78
Savings: 15, weak
How much of their income people put aside. ▼ 6 in 3 months.
- Saving rate4.1% of income15
How it's scored · sources
- Each measure is ranked against its own history since 1990: 70 means healthier than 70% of past months. Inflation is healthiest near 2%; lower interest rates count as healthier.
- Categories average their measures; Overall averages the categories. 70+ green, 50–69 yellow, under 50 red.
- Recession odds are history, not a model, from four long-running warning signs since 1982 and NBER recession dates.
- Educational only, not investment advice. Data as of October 22, 2026.
Via FRED: Unemployment rate · Initial jobless claims · Total nonfarm payrolls · Quits rate (JOLTS) · Average hourly earnings, private · Consumer Price Index, all items · Core CPI (less food and energy) · Federal funds rate · 10-year Treasury yield · 30-year fixed mortgage rate · Median sales price of houses sold · Median household income · Housing starts · Personal saving rate · Credit card delinquency rate, banks · Household debt service ratio · Retail and food services sales · Weekly Economic Index · Business applications · Banks tightening loans to small firms · Sahm rule recession indicator (real-time) · 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield · US recessions (NBER dates)